Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
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This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
Logged 14 Aug 2026, 00:43 UTC · Brier 0.2116
- Reference class dominates because the listed 8.5 is a standard, no-push total rather than an extreme number.
- Case-specific evidence is mostly unavailable to me: starters, bullpen state, lineups, umpire, park/roof and weather are the real signals, while Rangers/Angels branding is mostly narrative.
- My independent ~0.46 is above the displayed 38.5%; the divergence is plausibly late market information about pitching/weather/lineups or simply thin $7k liquidity, so I do not treat it as decisive.
What would change it: Confirmation that both starters are elite/healthy with pitcher-friendly weather, roof/umpire or key bats out would move me sharply toward the under and toward the market price.
Settlement source+7.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: MLB games lined at 8.5 are near the league-average total and historically the over lands slightly under half the time in many run environments, roughly 45-48%.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
NOsettled 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · recorded 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · entered by handsettlement
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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This call is line t-0011 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.