Cincinnati Open: Sofia Kenin vs Eva Lys
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 60.0%against a market price of 67.0% at the timeNONOT SCORED
Logged 15 Aug 2026, 02:26 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Signal: as of my last reliable data, Kenin was a stalled former slam champion (~rank 30–60) while Lys was a young, steadily rising player (~rank 60–80) — on a neutral hard court that profile gap historically implies a modest edge, roughly 55–60% for the established veteran, not a runaway.
- Narrative risk: I have no verified 2026 form, rankings, or head-to-head; if Lys's 2025 trajectory continued she could plausibly be ranked above Kenin by now, which argues against taking a strong pro-Kenin stance.
- Market divergence: Polymarket at 67% is somewhat above my independent ~60%; this is plausibly explained by the market incorporating current-season form, injury status, and matchup data I lack, and liquid tennis markets are usually efficient, so I regress only partway rather than fully to the market price.
What would change it: Confirmed news that Lys has overtaken Kenin in ranking/form during 2026, or any Kenin injury/fatigue report before the match, would push my estimate below 50%.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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