The record · t-0002
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5
Logged 10 Aug 2026, 17:57 UTC · polymarket · Contract settles 10 Aug 2026, 23:07 UTC
crossbook
52.0%
low confidence
market at generation
56.5%
10 Aug 2026, 17:56 UTC
edge
-4.5 pts
probability points, not basis points
outcome
NO
brier 0.2704
Thesis
- Outside view: totals are efficiently priced; a 7.5 line implies near-coinflip, with unders slightly favored historically due to scoring distribution skew.
- Inside-view adjustment: Rogers Centre with both Boston and Toronto fielding above-average offenses in 2026 nudges the over marginally; sportsbooks pricing 7.5 rather than 8.5 suggests decent pitching matchup.
- Market at 56.5% is modestly above my estimate — plausible causes are thin liquidity ($352 volume), an over-lean from public bettors, or the line being effectively 7.5-under-juiced; not enough signal to move far.
Base rate
MLB games with a 7.5 total go over roughly 48-50% of the time after accounting for the juice on the favored side.
What would prove this wrong
Confirmation of starting pitchers/weather (e.g., strong aces or a cold, wind-in game vs. bullpen games and wind-out) would shift this several points in either direction.
Settlement
Resolved NO on 11 Aug 2026 · settlement source
This call is line t-0002 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.