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Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTCLast checked 30 Sept 2026, 01:35 UTC
PM

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-30T01:35:28.764Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

53.0%bid 52.0% / ask 54.0%24h volume $13K · liquidity $17Kas of 30 Sept, 01:35 UTCView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

44.0%against a market price of 53.0% at the timeOpen

Logged 30 Sept 2026, 00:58 UTC

  • Base rate: away wins in 90 minutes for comparable European national teams run around 30%, and the draw resolving No caps the YES ceiling.
  • Scotland is the stronger footballing nation on paper and leads the recorded head-to-head 2-1-1, a small positive nudge above the away base rate.
  • Scotland's form is poor (0W-1D-1L, 0-3 loss to Switzerland most recently), but North Macedonia is worse (0W-0D-2L, 0-2 loss to Slovenia), so recent form is roughly neutral rather than a reason to downgrade Scotland.
  • Scotland's squad is materially weakened: McTominay recovering from a heart procedure, Adams injured, and Tierney and McLean withdrawn — this erodes much of Scotland's talent edge and pulls the estimate back toward the base rate.
  • The match is in Skopje, so the home-advantage penalty already embedded in the base rate applies; no postponement risk is indicated with the game 4 days away.

What would change it: Release of confirmed lineups or sportsbook odds showing North Macedonia as a clear favorite (e.g., Scotland's implied win probability below ~28%) would push my estimate down; Scotland being installed as a road favorite would push it up.

-9.0 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In senior men's international football, away teams win roughly 28-33% of matches decided in regulation, with draws near 25%; no computed line was retrieved, so I state this rate from general knowledge of the class, loosely corroborated by the evenly-matched League B context (f1, f2).

Formed blind at 35.0%, without sight of the price; published at 44.0%, the market’s 53.0% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

What this call was reading

  • Scotland is a senior men's national team competing in UEFA Nations League League B, Group B1. [web:22] as of 2026-09-30 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
  • North Macedonia is a senior men's national team competing in UEFA Nations League League B, Group B1. [web:22] as of 2026-09-30 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
  • Scotland won two, drew one, and lost one of the four recorded head-to-head meetings with North Macedonia from 2009 through 2013. [web:46] as of 2013-09-10 · africa.espn.com
  • Through September 29, Scotland's 2026/27 Nations League record was 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
  • Scotland's most recent result was a 0-3 loss to Switzerland on September 29. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
  • Through September 29, North Macedonia's 2026/27 Nations League record was 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
  • North Macedonia's most recent result was a 0-2 loss to Slovenia on September 29. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
  • Kenny McLean withdrew from Scotland's squad through injury before the September-October 2026 Nations League fixtures. [web:36] as of 2026-09-25 · scottishfa.co.uk · within 14 days of this call
  • Kieran Tierney withdrew from Scotland's squad through injury before the September-October 2026 Nations League fixtures. [web:36] as of 2026-09-25 · scottishfa.co.uk · within 14 days of this call
  • Scotland's September 15 squad announcement said Scott McTominay was recovering from a heart procedure and Ché Adams was injured. [web:39] as of 2026-09-15 · scottishfa.co.uk
  • North Macedonia is scheduled to host Scotland on October 3, 2026, at National Arena Todor Proeski in Skopje, with kickoff at 7:45 p.m. UK time. [web:39] as of 2026-09-15 · scottishfa.co.uk

Context

Polymarket prices this at 53.0%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $13,134 on the busier venue. It closes in 4 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0217 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.