Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03?
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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-03T18:40:28.772Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
64.5%bid 64.0% / ask 65.0%24h volume $94K · liquidity $223Kas of 3 Oct, 18:40 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
Logged 30 Sept 2026, 00:58 UTC · Brier 0.3136
- Base rate: away wins in 90 minutes for comparable European national teams run around 30%, and the draw resolving No caps the YES ceiling.
- Scotland is the stronger footballing nation on paper and leads the recorded head-to-head 2-1-1, a small positive nudge above the away base rate.
- Scotland's form is poor (0W-1D-1L, 0-3 loss to Switzerland most recently), but North Macedonia is worse (0W-0D-2L, 0-2 loss to Slovenia), so recent form is roughly neutral rather than a reason to downgrade Scotland.
- Scotland's squad is materially weakened: McTominay recovering from a heart procedure, Adams injured, and Tierney and McLean withdrawn — this erodes much of Scotland's talent edge and pulls the estimate back toward the base rate.
- The match is in Skopje, so the home-advantage penalty already embedded in the base rate applies; no postponement risk is indicated with the game 4 days away.
What would change it: Release of confirmed lineups or sportsbook odds showing North Macedonia as a clear favorite (e.g., Scotland's implied win probability below ~28%) would push my estimate down; Scotland being installed as a road favorite would push it up.
Settlement source-9.0 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: In senior men's international football, away teams win roughly 28-33% of matches decided in regulation, with draws near 25%; no computed line was retrieved, so I state this rate from general knowledge of the class, loosely corroborated by the evenly-matched League B context.
Chosen by hand.
Formed blind at 35.0%, without sight of the price; published at 44.0%, the market’s 53.0% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
YESsettled 3 Oct 2026, 22:46 UTC · recorded 4 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement
What this call was reading
- Scotland is a senior men's national team competing in UEFA Nations League League B, Group B1. [web:22] as of 2026-09-30 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
- North Macedonia is a senior men's national team competing in UEFA Nations League League B, Group B1. [web:22] as of 2026-09-30 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
- Scotland won two, drew one, and lost one of the four recorded head-to-head meetings with North Macedonia from 2009 through 2013. [web:46] as of 2013-09-10 · africa.espn.com
- Through September 29, Scotland's 2026/27 Nations League record was 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
- Scotland's most recent result was a 0-3 loss to Switzerland on September 29. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
- Through September 29, North Macedonia's 2026/27 Nations League record was 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
- North Macedonia's most recent result was a 0-2 loss to Slovenia on September 29. [web:22] as of 2026-09-29 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
- Kenny McLean withdrew from Scotland's squad through injury before the September-October 2026 Nations League fixtures. [web:36] as of 2026-09-25 · scottishfa.co.uk · within 14 days of this call
- Kieran Tierney withdrew from Scotland's squad through injury before the September-October 2026 Nations League fixtures. [web:36] as of 2026-09-25 · scottishfa.co.uk · within 14 days of this call
- Scotland's September 15 squad announcement said Scott McTominay was recovering from a heart procedure and Ché Adams was injured. [web:39] as of 2026-09-15 · scottishfa.co.uk
- North Macedonia is scheduled to host Scotland on October 3, 2026, at National Arena Todor Proeski in Skopje, with kickoff at 7:45 p.m. UK time. [web:39] as of 2026-09-15 · scottishfa.co.uk
Polymarket prices this at 64.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $94,290 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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