UFC 334: Cesar Almeida vs. Donte Johnson (Middleweight, Prelims)
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-14T21:55:28.898Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
33.5%bid 33.0% / ask 34.0%24h volume $84K · liquidity $554Kas of 14 Nov, 21:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 35.3%against a market price of 38.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 12 Nov 2026, 14:02 UTC
- The ~2% combined probability of draw or no contest resolves 50-50 rather than for either fighter, slightly compressing both sides' win probabilities below a pure two-way split.
- Record gap is the dominant signal: Johnson is 9-0 while Almeida is 7-3, and undefeated-versus-multi-loss matchups in the UFC historically favor the undefeated fighter by a clear margin.
- Recency and momentum favor Johnson: he stopped Eric McConico in round one in August and beat Cody Brundage in March, while Almeida was knocked out in round one by Damian Pinas in July, his most recent outing.
- A first-round KO loss four months out raises finishing-vulnerability concerns for Almeida, and quick turnarounds after stoppage losses carry additional risk, though four months is an adequate recovery window.
- No injury, suspension, or weight issue could be established for either fighter, and both are listed active with the bout officially scheduled, so no adjustment for cancellation risk beyond the standard tail.
- Almeida's experience edge (10 pro fights vs 9, and presumably tougher opposition) and MMA's inherent variance keep this well short of a blowout price; single-fight comparisons are anchors, not distributions.
What would change it: A disclosed injury, missed weight, or a sportsbook consensus showing Johnson priced shorter than roughly -200 would materially move this estimate.
t-0306
Polymarket prices this at 33.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $84,469 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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