Texans vs. Browns: O/U 40.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-15T04:00:33.747Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
50.5%bid 50.0% / ask 51.0%24h volume $1K · liquidity $192Kas of 15 Nov, 04:00 UTCView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 51.7%against a market price of 48.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 13 Nov 2026, 16:01 UTC
- The base rate for NFL games with closing totals of 39.5-41.5 is 53.1% over, providing a slightly positive prior for the over.
- Houston scored 44 points in its most recent game, indicating offensive explosiveness that could push the total higher.
- Cleveland's last game was a low-scoring 23-22 loss, but Deshaun Watson's return at quarterback may boost offensive production compared to the backup's performance.
- Houston's running back injuries to Woody Marks and David Montgomery could limit their rushing attack and overall offensive output.
- Both teams have defensive injuries that might make them more vulnerable to scoring, potentially increasing the total.
What would change it: If either team's offense underperforms significantly due to the listed injuries or other factors, resulting in a combined score below 41 points.
t-0308
Polymarket prices this at 50.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,395 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
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