Spread: Washington (-3.5)
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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-14T22:25:26.883Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
44.5%bid 44.0% / ask 45.0%24h volume $20K · liquidity $148Kas of 14 Nov, 22:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 54.3%against a market price of 48.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 12 Nov 2026, 16:02 UTC
- The line class matches the retrieved base rate almost exactly: Washington is a road favorite of 3.5 points in a Big Ten game, and that class has covered at 63.4% since 2021.
- Washington is the better team by record (5-4 vs 3-6, and 2-4 vs 1-5 in conference), consistent with why they are favored on the road; this supports but does not add much beyond the base rate.
- Signal against Washington: starting QB Demond Williams Jr. is questionable, plus two other defensive contributors questionable and a running back doubtful — quarterback uncertainty is the single largest downward adjustment.
- Signal for Washington: Michigan State's availability report is worse in volume — 10 players out including defensive starters, plus a doubtful running back and questionable corners — which partially offsets the Washington QB concern.
- Recent form is ambiguous narrative: Washington lost a tight game to Penn State while MSU is coming off an emotional rivalry win over Michigan, which can precede a letdown; treating this as weak signal only.
- Netting a modest downgrade for the QB-questionable risk against the heavier MSU injury toll moves the estimate slightly below the 63.4% base rate to about 60%.
What would change it: Confirmation before kickoff that Demond Williams Jr. will not play (or that Michigan State's questionable defenders are all cleared) would move this estimate several points down (or up).
t-0307
Polymarket prices this at 44.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $19,522 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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