O/U 1.5 Rounds
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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-14T21:55:28.898Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
40.5%bid 40.0% / ask 41.0%24h volume $2K · liquidity $16Kas of 14 Nov, 21:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 50.0%against a market price of 40.0% at the timeOpen
Logged 12 Nov 2026, 13:01 UTC
- Flyweight is the lowest-finish men's division in the UFC, so the large majority of bouts survive past 2:30 of Round 2; the base rate near 62% anchors the estimate.
- Hasan is 10-0 with a recent second-round KO win, signaling finishing upside that pushes toward the Under.
- Gurule was submitted in Round 1 (3:19) in his most recent fight, suggesting vulnerability to an early finish and further Under pressure.
- Countervailing signal: Hasan's latest win came at 2:28 of Round 2 — a finish that itself would have landed just Under the threshold, but it also shows his fights can extend into Round 2; many first-round stoppage attempts fail and the fight then almost always crosses the threshold.
- Neither fighter's style profile beyond these results is documented in the retrieved facts, so the adjustment off the base rate is kept modest: two recent quick-finish data points against a strong divisional prior.
What would change it: A documented late-notice injury, weight-cut problem, or a clear stylistic mismatch (e.g., Hasan's knockout power versus Gurule's durability decline) confirmed before fight night would push this meaningfully toward Under.
t-0305
Polymarket prices this at 40.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,902 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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