Spread: Washington State (-8.5)

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Sun, 15 Nov 2026, 03:30 UTCLast checked 11 Nov 2026, 20:30 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-11T20:30:27.149Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

50.5%bid 50.0% / ask 51.0%24h volume $13K · liquidity $37Kas of 11 Nov, 20:30 UTCView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

40.8%against a market price of 50.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 11 Nov 2026, 20:02 UTC
- The base rate for home favorites of 5-9.5 points covering is 51.8%, but Washington State enters this game with a 1-8 record, an unusually weak profile for an 8.5-point favorite.
- Colorado State, despite a 3-6 record, has been more competitive than Washington State by record; a 1-8 team laying 8.5 points is a strong contrarian signal against the cover.
- Washington State's most recent result was a 6-point loss to San Diego State, and their injury report shows receiver Tony Freeman and linebacker Nylan Brown out for the season, with receiver Darrius Clemons a game-time decision - thinning an already struggling roster.
- Colorado State's most recent game was a 26-point loss to Boise State, which is a negative signal for them, but Boise State is a stronger opponent than this Washington State team, so the margin is less informative.
- The spread of -8.5 for a 1-8 home team suggests the market is pricing in factors beyond records (perhaps home-field advantage at Gesa Field or matchup specifics), but the objective evidence available here heavily favors Colorado State covering.
- No Colorado State availability report has been posted, so their injury situation is unknown - this adds uncertainty but does not shift the estimate given Washington State's documented losses.
What would change it: If Colorado State's unavailable players (once the availability report is posted) include multiple key starters, or if Washington State's 1-8 record masks strong underlying metrics like yards per play that justify the large spread, the probability would increase substantially.
t-0300

Polymarket prices this at 50.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $13,190 on the busier venue. It closes in 3 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

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