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Fed rate hike in 2026?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingContract settles 9 Dec 2026Last checked 16 Sept 2026, 18:05 UTC

Data may be delayed. These prices have not refreshed recently, so treat them as a last known reading rather than a current quote.

PM

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-16T18:05:26.784Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

95.6%bid 94.5% / ask 96.7%24h volume $328K · liquidity $56Kas of 16 Sept, 18:05 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

63.0%against a market price of 70.5% at the timeOpen

Logged 7 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC

  • Outside view: late-cycle resumption of hikes after a 9+ month hold is historically uncommon, capping the estimate well below certainty despite hawkish signals.
  • Strong inside-view hawkish evidence: the June 2026 dot plot median implies at least one hike by year-end and 9 of 18 participants penciled one in; three FOMC members already dissented for a hike in July.
  • The sitting Fed Chair (Warsh) publicly flagged that inflation trends have not meaningfully improved and the Fed may have 'work to do' at Jackson Hole — chairs rarely signal this way without follow-through, and FedWatch moved to ~55.7% for a September hike.
  • Inflation remains well above target (PCE 3.7%, headline CPI 3.4%) and the August jobs report beat with positive revisions, both supporting the hike case.
  • Dovish counterweight: core CPI is only 2.5% y/y and Governor Waller favors patience in September; a 9-3 hold vote in July shows a hike was still the minority position then.
  • Three remaining meetings (Sept 16, Oct 27-28, Dec 8-9) mean the YES side gets multiple draws; even if September holds, elevated inflation keeps October/December live, so cumulative probability exceeds the ~56% September-only pricing.
  • Key swing factor is the August CPI release on September 11, five days before the FOMC decision — a soft print likely produces a September hold and materially lowers the path to YES.

What would change it: A soft August CPI print on September 11 followed by a September hold and dovish Warsh press conference would drop this estimate to roughly 0.35-0.40, since October/December hikes after a September hold are historically rare.

-7.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In years where the Fed has held rates unchanged through July, it historically resumes hiking in the remaining meetings only a minority of the time (roughly 25-35%), but conditional on a hawkish June dot plot median and explicit hike dissents, that conditional rate rises substantially.

Chosen by hand.

What this call was reading

  • The Fed has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% since December 2025, unchanged through the January, March, April, June, and July 2026 meetings. as of 2026-07-29 · cambridgecurrencies.com · within 90 days of this call
  • In the June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections dot plot, nine of 18 FOMC participants showed a preference for at least one rate hike by year-end 2026. as of 2026-06-17 · ishares.com · within 90 days of this call
  • The June 2026 dot plot's median year-end 2026 fed funds rate projection was 3.75%-4.00%, a quarter-point higher than the then-current range. as of 2026-06-17 · bondsavvy.com · within 90 days of this call
  • At the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Committee voted 9-3 to hold rates steady, with three members dissenting in favor of a quarter-point rate hike. as of 2026-07-29 · chase.com · within 90 days of this call
  • At his Jackson Hole speech on August 28, 2026, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said this summer's inflation readings, while better than expected, do not indicate underlying trends have meaningfully improved, and that the Fed may have 'work to do.' as of 2026-08-28 · cnbc.com · within 90 days of this call
  • Following Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, traders raised the probability of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting to about 55.7% according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, up roughly 20 percentage points from the prior day. as of 2026-08-28 · cnbc.com · within 90 days of this call
  • PCE inflation was 3.7% year-over-year in July 2026, and CPI inflation was 3.4% year-over-year for the twelve months ending in July 2026. as of 2026-08-28 · npr.org · within 90 days of this call
  • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1 percent in July 2026 (seasonally adjusted) and rose 3.4 percent over the prior 12 months, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) up 0.2 percent monthly and 2.5 percent year-over-year. as of 2026-08-12 · bls.gov · within 90 days of this call
  • The US added 162,000 jobs in August 2026, beating market expectations, with an additional 55,000 in upward revisions, strengthening the case for a September rate hike. as of 2026-09-04 · investing.com · within 90 days of this call
  • Fed Governor Chris Waller said in early September 2026 that there is still a case for the Fed staying patient before deciding whether to raise rates, favoring a September hold. as of 2026-09-04 · investing.com · within 90 days of this call
  • The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15-16, 2026, with the rate decision announced at 2:00 PM ET on September 16. as of 2026-09-02 · fedratecalc.com · within 90 days of this call
  • The remaining scheduled 2026 FOMC meetings after September are October 27-28 and December 8-9. as of 2026-07-29 · cambridgecurrencies.com · within 90 days of this call
  • The Consumer Price Index for August 2026 is scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026. as of 2026-09-06 · bls.gov · within 90 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 95.6%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $328,105 on the busier venue. It closes in about 40 days, which is near enough that a single scheduled event can move it.

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Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0177 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.