Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
Logged 14 Aug 2026, 00:33 UTC · Brier 0.1764
- Outside view: with no case-specific data on starters, bullpens, or weather, the reference class base rate of ~40-44% is the anchor, and the game resolves today so there is no time-decay ambiguity.
- Inside view: the market's 29.5% implies bettors expect a low-scoring game, plausibly due to strong starting pitching or pitcher-friendly conditions; absent the ability to verify that, I treat it as signal worth a modest downward adjustment from the base rate but not full convergence.
- Divergence note: my ~42% vs. the market's 29.5% is likely explained by the market pricing in specific starting pitchers and conditions I cannot observe; on a low-volume ($1.8k) market, this price is also weakly informative and could simply reflect thin liquidity.
What would change it: Confirmation that the scheduled starters are elite/healthy with a rested bullpen and pitcher-friendly weather would move my estimate down toward the market's 29.5%; a scratch of either ace or hitter-friendly wind would move it above 50%.
Settlement source+12.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: Historically, roughly 40-44% of MLB games exceed 9.5 total runs, as the league-average combined score sits around 8.5-9 runs per game.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
NOsettled 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · recorded 14 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · entered by handsettlement
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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This call is line t-0008 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.