Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
Logged 12 Aug 2026, 18:11 UTC · Brier 0.2304
- Outside view: league-wide scoring (~4.4-4.6 runs/team/game) puts ~55-58% of runs in the first five innings, centering the F5 mean just above 4.5, so the over is a slight favorite at this line.
- Inside view is thin: I have no confirmed starting pitchers, lineups, weather, or venue for this 2026-08-12 game, so I cannot justify a large move off the base rate; if the game is at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park that nudges the over slightly.
- The market's 43.5% on only $141 of 24h volume is plausibly just illiquidity and stale/uninformed pricing rather than sharp signal about pitching matchups; I weight it weakly.
- Time-decay is irrelevant here since the market closes at game time today, but the low liquidity means my estimate should carry low confidence.
What would change it: Confirmation that both teams are starting elite pitchers (e.g., aces with sub-3.00 ERAs) or adverse hitting weather would push my estimate down toward or below 45%.
Settlement source+8.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: MLB first-five-innings totals average roughly 4.5-5.0 runs, and F5 over 4.5 has historically hit around 50-54% of the time depending on era and park.
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
YESsettled 13 Aug 2026, 14:50 UTC · recorded 13 Aug 2026, 14:50 UTC · entered by handsettlement
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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This call is line t-0006 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.