Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5
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This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
Logged 10 Aug 2026, 17:49 UTC · Brier 0.0484
- Outside view: with a mean F5 combined total near 4.5 runs and a Poisson-ish distribution, P(3+ runs through 5) sits in the mid-70s; books rarely post 2.5 as the F5 line unless expecting low scoring, and even then the over is favored
- Inside view: Phillies-Cardinals in St. Louis or Philadelphia are league-average-to-above scoring environments; no strong signal of an elite pitching matchup provided, so I stay near the base rate
- Market's 81.5% is modestly above my estimate but plausible if the posted line is 2.5 with heavy over juice or if starters are weak; the $4 volume means the price is near-noise and I weight it lightly
What would change it: Confirmation of two ace-caliber starters with low walk rates in a pitcher-friendly, cold/wind-in environment would pull this toward 0.65.
Settlement source-3.5 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket
Base rate: Combined first-5-inning totals average roughly 4.3-4.6 runs, so a 2.5 line goes over about 72-78% of the time league-wide
Chosen by hand.
Settlement
Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.
YESsettled 14 Aug 2026, 21:08 UTC · recorded 14 Aug 2026, 21:08 UTC · entered by handsettlement
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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