Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on September 25?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 25 Sept 2026Last checked 25 Sept 2026, 15:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-25T15:55:27.235Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

3.6%bid 2.0% / ask 5.3%24h volume $4K · liquidity $2Kas of 25 Sept, 15:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

26.0%against a market price of 22.8% at the timeNO
Logged 22 Sept 2026, 04:16 UTC · Brier 0.0676
- The threshold requires XRP to rise from ~1.53 to above 1.60 (~4.6%) by the noon ET candle close on Sep 25, a move well within 3-day volatility for XRP but against-the-odds absent drift.
- Momentum is a modest positive signal: XRP reportedly gained 7.4% in the prior 24 hours and rose from 1.4054 (Sep 20) to 1.53 (Sep 22), indicating an active upswing and elevated volatility regime, both of which raise the chance of touching/closing above 1.60.
- Signal vs narrative: the price levels and 24h gain are hard signal; any implied continuation story is narrative. Short-horizon crypto momentum is weak, so the adjustment from base rate is small.
- Resolution is a single 1-minute Binance candle close at noon ET, adding microstructure noise: thin or spiky prints near the boundary could swing settlement, which slightly favors YES when spot is within a few percent of the strike.
- Time decay is minimal (3 days), and no scheduled catalyst was identified, so the estimate rests mainly on volatility and the small distance-to-strike.
What would change it: A sharp reversal taking XRP below ~1.45 in the next day or two, or a collapse in realized volatility, would push the probability well below 20%.
Settlement sourcet-0215

Context

Polymarket prices this at 3.6%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $3,882 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

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