Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on September 24?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 24 Sept 2026Last checked 24 Sept 2026, 13:50 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-24T13:50:27.016Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

99.4%bid 99.1% / ask 99.7%24h volume $2K · liquidity $22Kas of 24 Sept, 13:50 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

22.0%against a market price of 38.0% at the timeYES
Logged 20 Sept 2026, 12:44 UTC · Brier 0.6084
- Spot is 1.3179, so resolution requires a close above 1.40 — a ~6.2% rally within 4 days, a meaningful but far from impossible move for a large-cap altcoin.
- Using XRP's typical daily volatility of ~3-4%, four-day volatility is ~6-8%, putting the strike roughly 0.8-1.0 standard deviations above spot, which under a lognormal-with-fat-tails view implies a YES probability near 0.18-0.25.
- The resolution is a single 1-minute candle close at noon ET on Binance, not a sustained level, so only the price path endpoint matters; no scheduled catalyst before Sept 24 was identified, so drift is likely noise-dominated rather than event-driven.
- Time decay is unfavorable to YES: with only 4 days left and price below the strike, the market needs an actual rally rather than merely holding current levels.
What would change it: A sharp XRP rally over the next 1-3 days (e.g., driven by broad crypto market strength or XRP-specific news) pushing spot toward or above 1.40 would move this estimate toward 0.5 or higher.
Settlement sourcet-0205

Context

Polymarket prices this at 99.4%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $2,408 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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