Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on August 28?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 63.0%against a market price of 68.5% at the timeNO
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 02:30 UTC · Brier 0.3969
- I cannot verify current XRP spot; the market's 68.5% with 6 days to expiry most plausibly implies spot is modestly above $1.40 (roughly $1.50–1.60), since a strike far above or below spot would push odds toward extremes.
- XRP's realized volatility is high (often 4–6% daily, ~12–15% over 6 days), so a 5–10% spot cushion above $1.40 translates to roughly a 60–70% chance of finishing above the strike; I shave the market's 68.5% slightly toward 50% to account for thin liquidity (resting book only ~$4,600) and crypto's fat left tail.
- The divergence between my estimate and the market price is small and plausibly explained by the shallow order book plus my systematic regression toward 50% for volatile, near-the-money short-dated contracts.
What would change it: A broad crypto market selloff or XRP-specific negative catalyst (e.g., regulatory news, large holder distribution) in the next few days that pushes spot meaningfully below $1.40.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 91%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $23,132 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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