Will FC København win on 2026-08-12?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 74.0%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeYES
Logged 12 Aug 2026, 16:05 UTC · Brier 0.0676
- The market's 79.5% implies FC København is a heavy favorite, consistent with them being Denmark's strongest club facing a weaker domestic side or a lower-tier European qualifier opponent; heavy home favorites in this range convert at rates broadly near their implied odds, with slight favorite-longshot bias suggesting a small downward adjustment.
- Without confirmed information about the opponent, venue, lineup news, or match context (league vs. European qualifier), I anchor close to the market-implied probability with a modest haircut for uncertainty and the typical 2-5 point favorite-longshot bias observed in soccer markets.
- The market closes at kickoff today, so time-decay is not a factor; with $59k in volume the price is reasonably informed, and I have no signal to diverge strongly from it — my 74% reflects mild skepticism rather than a substantive disagreement.
- The divergence (74% vs 79.5%) is small and plausibly explained by standard favorite-longshot bias and my lack of match-specific information rather than any identified market error.
What would change it: Confirmation that the opponent is a genuinely strong side (e.g., a top European club in a Champions League qualifier) or news of key FCK injuries/rotation would move my estimate substantially downward.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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