Will England win?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 90.0%against a market price of 95.3% at the timeVOIDNOT SCORED
Logged 20 Aug 2026, 22:58 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- The market-implied 95.3% indicates England is a massive favorite in a specific imminent fixture (5 days to close), but heavy favorites at this level empirically convert at slightly below their implied probability.
- Key uncertainty: the exact sport, opponent, and match context are not specified in the prompt, and in sports like football a draw alone resolves NO, which typically costs even dominant favorites 8–15% of win probability; this caps justified confidence below the market price.
- My independent estimate of ~0.90 sits modestly below the market's 95.3%; the divergence is plausibly explained by favorite-longshot bias and retail overconfidence in national teams rather than by information I'm missing.
What would change it: Confirmed team news (e.g., England resting key players, injuries, or a dead-rubber fixture) or identification of the specific matchup showing a much weaker opponent would materially shift this estimate.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.