Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 42.0%against a market price of 38.5% at the timeYES
Logged 14 Aug 2026, 00:33 UTC · Brier 0.3364
- Without opponent or starting pitcher data, the best anchor is the generic -1.5 run-line base rate for a strong home/away favorite, which clusters near 40-45%; the Dodgers' elite offense and run differential nudge toward the upper half of that range.
- The market-implied 38.5% is consistent with a moderate (not heavy) moneyline favorite; my 42% sits slightly above, a small divergence plausibly explained by the market pricing specific matchup/pitcher information I don't have, plus thin $5.2k volume that limits price reliability.
- Key signal vs. narrative: the one-run-game frequency (~29%) is hard statistical signal that caps any -1.5 cover probability; 'Dodgers are dominant' is narrative and worth only a modest adjustment without knowing the opposing starter and lineup.
What would change it: A announced pitching mismatch against the Dodgers (ace opposing starter or a bullpen game for LA), or simply the game being decided by one run, which is the modal way this market resolves NO.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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