San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 72.0%against a market price of 96.5% at the timeYESNOT SCORED
Logged 15 Aug 2026, 01:31 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Absent specific information, no single regular-season baseball game supports a 90%+ win probability; baseball's variance (bullpens, BABIP luck, one bad inning) caps realistic favorites near 70–75%.
- The 7-day window means lineups, starters, and rest situations aren't locked in; pregame odds will converge toward the true price as the game approaches, but my ex-ante cap stands.
- The market at 96.5% with $183k volume implies information I lack — possibly an ace-on-mound mismatch, a Guardians late-season collapse with nothing to play for, or rested-vs-traveling spot — which plausibly justifies a meaningful premium over generic base rates, so I shade well above my pure prior rather than anchoring at ~65%.
- If this is not a single game but a multi-leg or context-heavy condition, the 96.5% could be efficient; I treat that scenario as the main reason my estimate isn't lower.
What would change it: Confirmed starting pitching matchup (e.g., Padres ace vs. Guardians bullpen game or call-up) plus injury/rest reports showing a genuinely lopsided contest would push me toward 0.80+; a competitive matchup on paper would push me toward 0.60.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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