Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 51.0%against a market price of 55.5% at the timeYES
Logged 10 Aug 2026, 18:05 UTC · Brier 0.2401
- Outside view: MLB games with a 8.5 total go over about half the time; Busch Stadium plays as a modest pitcher's park, which shades slightly under.
- No signal available here on starters, weather, or lineups; the listing itself is the main information and it's already market-priced.
- Polymarket's 55.5% may reflect either an over-lean from public bettors/known high-scoring conditions (heat, wind out, weak starters) or simply which side the ticket labels — I nudge only slightly toward market rather than fully adopting it.
What would change it: Confirmation of two ace-caliber starters with cool, wind-in conditions (or conversely bullpen games in hot August air) would move this several points in the respective direction.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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