New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 24.0%against a market price of 19.5% at the timeYESNOT SCORED
Logged 15 Aug 2026, 01:29 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Outside view: baseball's parity caps how low any single-game win probability can realistically go; a 19.5% implied probability corresponds to roughly a -400 favorite, which occurs in only a small fraction of MLB games (typically ace-vs-AAA-callup pitching mismatches).
- Inside view: the market's 19.5% on meaningful volume ($278k) likely encodes real information I lack — 2026 standings, a lopsided probable-pitcher matchup, or Yankee injuries — so I update substantially toward the market rather than anchoring on a naive 40% underdog prior; this is signal, not narrative.
- Time-decay consideration: with 7 days to close, probable pitchers and lineups are not yet confirmed, so the line should regress toward less extreme values as uncertainty resolves — supporting an estimate a few points above the current market price.
- Divergence: my 24% vs. market 19.5% is plausibly explained by the market pricing in specific roster/pitching information unavailable to me for a 2026 fixture; I treat roughly half that gap as genuine market signal and half as early-line overextension.
What would change it: Confirmation of the starting pitcher matchup or updated standings/injury news showing the Yankees are legitimately one of the worst teams in 2026 and Toronto elite — in which case the probability should move down toward or below 19.5%.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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