Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
This market has settled and is no longer listed, so there is no current price to show. What Crossbook called, and when, is below.
Crossbook forecast
- 60.0%against a market price of 66.5% at the timeNONOT SCORED
Logged 15 Aug 2026, 03:41 UTC
Not scored: this was logged after the event had already started, which Crossbook’s forecast window failed to catch because the venue published a closing date that included a dispute buffer. It counts toward nothing. Why.
- Outside view: assuming YES maps to the favorite (Giants), a decent home team hosting a bottom-tier team typically prices around 60–66% pre-pitcher-announcement, so my independent estimate of ~60% sits slightly below the market's 66.5% — the divergence is plausibly explained by bettors already pricing in an expected favorable pitching matchup or Rockies' historically poor road record away from Coors Field.
- Signal vs. narrative: the multi-year talent gap (Giants ~.500, Rockies ~.370–.400 win pct) is genuine signal; any narrative about 2026 form is unknowable to me, so I discount it and regress toward generic favorite rates rather than the market's more confident 66.5%.
- Time-decay and information: with 7 days until the game, starting pitchers are unannounced, and pitcher identity is the single largest swing factor in a one-game MLB moneyline (can move a line ±10–15 points), which justifies wider uncertainty and a confidence of low; also note ambiguity risk in which team 'YES' represents.
What would change it: Announcement of the starting pitcher matchup — a Giants ace versus a Rockies spot-starter would push me toward 68–70%, while a Rockies-favorable pitching matchup or a Giants lineup decimated by injuries would pull me toward 50–55%.
Settlement source
Context
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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