Spread: Texans (-1.5)

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SettledEvent date Sun, 20 Sept 2026, 17:00 UTCLast checked 20 Sept 2026, 16:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-20T16:55:28.739Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

55.5%bid 55.0% / ask 56.0%24h volume $928 · liquidity $632Kas of 20 Sept, 16:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

48.6%against a market price of 54.0% at the timeNO

Logged 18 Sept 2026, 13:50 UTC · Brier 0.2362

The outside view is nearly a coin flip: short home favorites in the -1 to -3 band have covered only 49.6% of decided games, so Texans -1.5 starts just under 50% rather than with a meaningful favorite edge.
One-game season form is weak signal and roughly offsets: Cincinnati is 1-0 after a six-point win over Tampa Bay, while Houston is 0-1 but lost by only five to Buffalo, so I do not move far from the class rate on results alone.
Injury signal is mixed but slightly unfavorable to Houston's cover case: Burrow's back limitation creates real Bengals downside, yet Houston has more non-participants, including Nico Collins and Jadeveon Clowney, with final statuses still unknown close to kickoff.

What would change it: Final game statuses showing Burrow full-go while Collins and/or Clowney are ruled out would push this lower, while Burrow being ruled out or clearly compromised would push it above the base rate.

Settlement source

-5.4 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: For NFL home favorites closing between -1 and -3 over 25+ years, the cover record was 614-625-66, a 49.6% cover rate among decided games (f17).

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 20 Sept 2026, 21:15 UTC · recorded 20 Sept 2026, 21:15 UTC · entered by handsettlement

What this call was reading

Across NFL closing spreads from -1 through -3 points for home favorites over the last 25 or more years, the record was 614-625-66, a 49.6% cover rate among decided games. as of 2026-08-24 · boydsbets.com
The Houston Texans' 2026 season record is 0-1-0. as of 2026-09-17 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
The Houston Texans lost their most recent game to the Buffalo Bills 36-31 on September 13, 2026, a five-point margin. as of 2026-09-13 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
The Cincinnati Bengals' 2026 season record is 1-0-0. as of 2026-09-17 · nfl.com · within 14 days of this call
The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 33-27 on September 13, 2026, a six-point margin. as of 2026-09-13 · bengals.com · within 14 days of this call
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow was listed with a back injury and limited participation on Wednesday and Thursday before the game. as of 2026-09-17 · bengals.com · within 14 days of this call
Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins was listed with a hamstring injury and did not participate on Thursday before the game. as of 2026-09-17 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
Houston Texans defensive end Jadeveon Clowney was listed with a knee injury and did not participate on Wednesday or Thursday before the game. as of 2026-09-17 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
Houston Texans linebacker Jake Hummel was listed with a groin injury and did not participate on Wednesday or Thursday before the game. as of 2026-09-17 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
Houston Texans guard Ed Ingram was listed with a groin injury and limited participation on Thursday before the game. as of 2026-09-17 · houstontexans.com · within 14 days of this call
Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Shemar Stewart had full participation on Wednesday and Thursday after being listed with a knee injury. as of 2026-09-17 · bengals.com · within 14 days of this call

Context

Polymarket prices this at 55.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $928 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0201 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.