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Lions vs. Bills: O/U 56.5

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SettledEvent date Fri, 18 Sept 2026, 00:15 UTCLast checked 18 Sept 2026, 00:10 UTC
PM

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-18T00:10:28.596Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

44.5%bid 44.0% / ask 45.0%24h volume $30K · liquidity $172Kas of 18 Sept, 00:10 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

44.0%against a market price of 39.5% at the timeYES

Logged 15 Sept 2026, 01:27 UTC · Brier 0.3136

  • The retrieved base rate for closing totals of 54-56 is a 46.3% over rate; this line at 56.5 sits just above that band, and totals are set near efficient levels, so the over should price slightly below that 46.3% figure, not above it.
  • Signal for a higher-scoring environment: both teams' Week 1 games were shootouts — Lions 31-30 over the Saints (61 combined) and Bills 36-31 over the Texans (67 combined) — consistent with both offenses producing and both defenses allowing points.
  • Countervailing signal: the Lions are missing multiple offensive linemen (Cade Mays on IR, Mahogany and Miller nonparticipants), which modestly depresses Detroit's offensive efficiency and pushes back toward the under.
  • Bills' questionable players (Ty Johnson, T.J. Sanders) are low-impact for the total; neither is a starting offensive engine, so this is noise rather than signal.
  • Netting a shootout-leaning week-1 read against a high line and Lions OL injuries, I stay marginally below the base rate; a single week of each team's results is one comparison, an anchor rather than a distribution.

What would change it: Late-week confirmation that Detroit's depleted offensive line will start multiple backups, or a sharp market move of the total to 57.5+, would push my over probability down toward 0.40.

Settlement source

+4.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Since the 2020 NFL season, games with closing totals between 54 and 56 points went over in 25 of 54 games (46.3%), per teamrankings.com [f22].

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

  1. YESsettled 18 Sept 2026, 16:49 UTC · recorded 18 Sept 2026, 16:49 UTC · entered by handsettlement

What this call was reading

  • Since the start of the 2020 NFL season, games with closing totals between 54 and 56 points have gone over in 25 of 54 games, or 46.3 percent. [web:18] as of 2025-12-31 · teamrankings.com
  • The Detroit Lions most recently defeated the New Orleans Saints 31-30 in overtime by one point. [web:46] as of 2026-09-13 · detroitlions.com · within 90 days of this call
  • The Buffalo Bills most recently defeated the Houston Texans 36-31 by five points. [web:54] as of 2026-09-13 · espn.co.uk · within 90 days of this call
  • Detroit Lions center Cade Mays is on injured reserve with a broken wrist and must miss at least the first four games. [web:82] as of 2026-09-08 · freep.com · within 90 days of this call
  • Detroit Lions guard Christian Mahogany was listed as a nonparticipant with a hip injury on the September 14 estimated injury report. [web:76] as of 2026-09-14 · freep.com · within 90 days of this call
  • Detroit Lions right tackle Blake Miller was listed as a nonparticipant with a knee injury on the September 14 estimated injury report. [web:76] as of 2026-09-14 · freep.com · within 90 days of this call
  • Buffalo Bills running back Ty Johnson was listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. [web:39] as of 2026-09-14 · sports.yahoo.com · within 90 days of this call
  • Buffalo Bills defensive lineman T.J. Sanders was listed as questionable with a knee injury. [web:39] as of 2026-09-14 · sports.yahoo.com · within 90 days of this call

Context

Polymarket prices this at 44.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $29,935 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

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This call is line t-0194 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.