Wisconsin vs. UCLA

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTCLast checked 17 Oct 2026, 23:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-17T23:25:29.402Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

47.5%bid 47.0% / ask 48.0%24h volume $53K · liquidity $321Kas of 17 Oct, 23:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

49.5%against a market price of 46.0% at the timeNO
Logged 13 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Brier 0.2450
- UCLA's starting QB Nico Iamaleava is out for the season with a knee injury, forcing backup Ty Dieffenbach into his first start — losing a starting quarterback is typically worth 4-7 points against the spread and is the single biggest swing factor in this game.
- Wisconsin enters in strong form at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten) off a dominant 31-3 win over Michigan State, supporting an upward adjustment from the generic road-team base rate.
- UCLA's 5-0 record and win over Oregon show a quality team, but the 17-15 margin over Oregon was narrow, and that result preceded the QB injury, so the record overstates current strength.
- Wisconsin has real injury uncertainty of its own — QB O'Neil and RBs Lane and Sama III are questionable — which caps how far I adjust toward Wisconsin; questionable players often play, but an O'Neil absence would roughly neutralize the UCLA QB edge.
- The game is at the Rose Bowl, so UCLA's home-field edge is already embedded in the 0.41 road base rate rather than double-counted.
- The 4-7 all-time series record is stale (through 2000) and carries essentially no signal for the 2026 rosters.
What would change it: Wisconsin QB D. O'Neil being ruled out (with the two questionable RBs also sidelined) would flip my estimate back toward UCLA as the favorite.
Settlement sourcet-0246

Polymarket prices this at 47.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $52,977 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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