LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTCContract settles 31 Oct 2026Last checked 29 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

78.5%bid 78.0% / ask 79.0%24h volume $157K · liquidity $344Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

73.8%against a market price of 79.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 27 Oct 2026, 13:02 UTC
- The raw 1-2 elimination-match base rate is a coin flip by construction, so the real work is regional and roster strength: LCK teams have dominated LEC teams at Worlds for years, and HLE (LCK second seed) sits in the stronger region while G2 is EMEA's best but from the historically weaker major region.
- HLE's listed roster (Zeus, Kanavi, Zeka, Gumayusi, Delight) is a genuinely elite LCK lineup, the kind of squad that typically outclasses even top LEC rosters in a BO3 where adaptation between games favors deeper champion pools and coaching infrastructure.
- Form signal cuts against HLE somewhat: both teams sit 1-2 after three Swiss rounds, and HLE's most recent loss to Invictus Gaming shows vulnerability; G2's loss to Top Esports is comparable in quality of opponent, so recent form does not justify a bigger gap than the regional prior.
- G2's 1-2 record and LEC first-seed status mean this is the strongest EMEA has to offer, and EU first seeds have historically produced occasional upsets over LCK sides (roughly one in four such series), which caps how far above the regional prior I can push.
- Match is confirmed scheduled for October 30 in Allen, Texas with three days to go, so postponement/cancellation risk feeding the 50-50 rule is negligible; no injury or lineup-change information could be established, which argues against deviating far from the strength-based estimate.
What would change it: Confirmed absence of an HLE starter (or credible reports of G2 dominating scrims/HLE internal issues) in the three days before the match would push this toward 0.50.
t-0277

Polymarket prices this at 78.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $156,735 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.