Browns vs. Steelers

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 18:00 UTCLast checked 29 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

35.5%bid 35.0% / ask 36.0%24h volume $3K · liquidity $119Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

39.8%against a market price of 35.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 28 Oct 2026, 13:01 UTC
- Both teams enter at 5-2 with clean injury reports, so there is no case-specific edge to move off an even-matchup prior; the only asymmetry is venue, which is tentatively Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh), making the Browns the likely road team.
- The head-to-head cover rate of exactly 5/10 is signal that this matchup has been priced as a coin flip historically, but it is a spread-covering rate, not a win rate — one comparison, treated as an anchor only.
- Recent form is symmetric noise: Browns won by 3, Steelers by 6, both last week; neither result carries information about this game's outcome beyond confirming both teams are competent.
- Venue is the dominant uncertainty: if the game were in Cleveland the estimate would flip to roughly 0.56; the retrieval note suggests Pittsburgh but could not confirm it, so I shade only modestly below 0.50 rather than applying the full home-field adjustment.
What would change it: Confirmation that the game is being played in Cleveland, or a late-week injury/suspension announcement sidelining a Steelers starter, would push this toward or above 0.50.
t-0280

Polymarket prices this at 35.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $2,621 on the busier venue. It closes in 3 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

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