Science City Jena vs. Fraport Skyliners

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Fri, 30 Oct 2026, 17:30 UTCContract settles 6 Nov 2026Last checked 29 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

23.6%bid 22.2% / ask 25.1%24h volume $7K · liquidity $4Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

20.2%against a market price of 11.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 28 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC
- Base rate: the historical head-to-head is 11–3 in favor of Fraport, implying Jena wins ~21% of these matchups.
- Jena is the home team at Sparkassen-Arena; home-court advantage in professional basketball is typically worth a few points of win probability, pushing Jena above the raw H2H rate.
- Current season form favors Fraport: Skyliners are 3–1 with recent double-digit wins, while Jena is 2–3 and lost its most recent game by 47 points to Bonn — a strong signal of current weakness, though one game is only an anchor.
- Injury information is stale (September) and roughly balanced — Jena's captain Christen vs. Skyliners' Knauf/Bedime — so it cannot be established as a net edge either way and is treated as narrative noise rather than signal.
- No cross-book point spread was retrievable, so the estimate leans on H2H base rate plus home court and form adjustments, landing Jena near 29% to win outright.
What would change it: A confirmed pre-game report that Jena's captain Robin Christen (or another key starter) is out for October 30, or a market/bookmaker spread showing Fraport favored by double digits, would push the estimate down toward the low 20s.
t-0281

Polymarket prices this at 23.6%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $6,517 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.