Wisconsin vs. UCLA

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 17 Oct 2026, 23:30 UTCLast checked 17 Oct 2026, 23:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-17T23:25:29.402Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

47.5%bid 47.0% / ask 48.0%24h volume $53K · liquidity $321Kas of 17 Oct, 23:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

49.5%against a market price of 46.0% at the timeNO

Logged 13 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Brier 0.2450

UCLA's starting QB Nico Iamaleava is out for the season with a knee injury, forcing backup Ty Dieffenbach into his first start — losing a starting quarterback is typically worth 4-7 points against the spread and is the single biggest swing factor in this game.
Wisconsin enters in strong form at 4-1 (2-0 Big Ten) off a dominant 31-3 win over Michigan State, supporting an upward adjustment from the generic road-team base rate.
UCLA's 5-0 record and win over Oregon show a quality team, but the 17-15 margin over Oregon was narrow, and that result preceded the QB injury, so the record overstates current strength.
Wisconsin has real injury uncertainty of its own — QB O'Neil and RBs Lane and Sama III are questionable — which caps how far I adjust toward Wisconsin; questionable players often play, but an O'Neil absence would roughly neutralize the UCLA QB edge.
The game is at the Rose Bowl, so UCLA's home-field edge is already embedded in the 0.41 road base rate rather than double-counted.
The 4-7 all-time series record is stale (through 2000) and carries essentially no signal for the 2026 rosters.

What would change it: Wisconsin QB D. O'Neil being ruled out (with the two questionable RBs also sidelined) would flip my estimate back toward UCLA as the favorite.

Settlement source

+3.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Road teams in FBS conference games historically win roughly 40-42% of the time; this is slow-moving general knowledge of home-field advantage in college football, as no retrieved fact gives a line-based rate for this class.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 53.0%, without sight of the price; published at 49.5%, the market’s 46.0% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f14) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 18 Oct 2026, 03:14 UTC · recorded 18 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava was reported out for the remainder of the season after a knee injury against Oregon. [web:23] as of 2026-10-12 · badgerswire.usatoday.com · within 14 days of this call
UCLA backup quarterback Ty Dieffenbach was reported as set to assume the starting role after Iamaleava's injury. [web:17] as of 2026-10-13 · foxsports.com · within 14 days of this call
Wisconsin had a 4-1 overall record and a 2-0 Big Ten record before this game. [web:48] as of 2026-10-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
Wisconsin's most recent result before this game was a 31-3 win over Michigan State, a 28-point margin. [web:14] as of 2026-10-03 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
UCLA had a 5-0 overall record and a 3-0 Big Ten record before this game. [web:48] as of 2026-10-13 · espn.com · within 14 days of this call
UCLA's most recent result before this game was a 17-15 win over Oregon, a two-point margin. [web:9] as of 2026-10-10 · ncaa.com · within 14 days of this call
Wisconsin quarterback D. O'Neil was listed as questionable with a lower-body injury. [web:28] as of 2026-10-12 · covers.com · within 14 days of this call
Wisconsin running back M. Lane was listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury. [web:28] as of 2026-10-12 · covers.com · within 14 days of this call
Wisconsin running back A. Sama III was listed as questionable with an upper-body injury. [web:28] as of 2026-10-12 · covers.com · within 14 days of this call
The game was scheduled for October 17, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. EDT at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. [web:39][web:13] as of 2026-10-13 · record-eagle.com · within 14 days of this call
Wisconsin's all-time football series record against UCLA is 4 wins and 7 losses, with no ties. [web:47] as of 2000-12-29 · uwbadgers.com

Polymarket prices this at 47.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $52,977 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0246 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.