Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-09T02:40:26.869Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
12.5%bid 12.0% / ask 13.0%24h volume $153 · liquidity $46Kas of 9 Sept, 02:40 UTCView on PolymarketCrossbook forecast
- 20.0%against a market price of 12.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:38 UTC
- Sunderland host Arsenal at the Stadium of Light, giving them home advantage, which is the single biggest factor lifting their win probability above a neutral-site estimate [f1].
- Sunderland are a solid mid-table side, not a relegation candidate: they finished 7th in 2025-26 and sit 12th with 4 points from 3 matches this season (1W-1D-1L), including a credible 1-1 draw away at Brentford [f2, f3, f4, f5].
- Sunderland strengthened their squad late in the window with Kevin Danso and Malick Fofana, marginally improving their chances relative to a typical promoted side [f6].
- However, the opponent is Arsenal, the reigning 2025-26 Premier League champions, and fixture-difficulty assessments rate this as a hard match for Sunderland; champions-caliber away sides typically win well over half of such fixtures [f7, f8].
- No team news, injuries, or suspensions are confirmed for either side, so I cannot adjust for lineup edge in either direction and default toward the market-typical home-underdog rate against an elite opponent.
What would change it: Confirmed Arsenal rotation, key injuries, or a major drop in Arsenal's early-season form (or significant Sunderland injuries) emerging before kickoff would shift my estimate by several points in either direction.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 12.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $153 on the busier venue. It closes in 4 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
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