Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTCLast checked 12 Sept 2026, 18:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T18:55:29.045Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

15.5%bid 15.0% / ask 16.0%24h volume $727K · liquidity $616Kas of 12 Sept, 18:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

20.0%against a market price of 12.5% at the timeNO
Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:38 UTC · Brier 0.0400
- Sunderland host Arsenal at the Stadium of Light, giving them home advantage, which is the single biggest factor lifting their win probability above a neutral-site estimate.
- Sunderland are a solid mid-table side, not a relegation candidate: they finished 7th in 2025-26 and sit 12th with 4 points from 3 matches this season (1W-1D-1L), including a credible 1-1 draw away at Brentford.
- Sunderland strengthened their squad late in the window with Kevin Danso and Malick Fofana, marginally improving their chances relative to a typical promoted side.
- However, the opponent is Arsenal, the reigning 2025-26 Premier League champions, and fixture-difficulty assessments rate this as a hard match for Sunderland; champions-caliber away sides typically win well over half of such fixtures.
- No team news, injuries, or suspensions are confirmed for either side, so I cannot adjust for lineup edge in either direction and default toward the market-typical home-underdog rate against an elite opponent.
What would change it: Confirmed Arsenal rotation, key injuries, or a major drop in Arsenal's early-season form (or significant Sunderland injuries) emerging before kickoff would shift my estimate by several points in either direction.
Settlement sourcet-0171

Polymarket prices this at 15.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $726,634 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.