Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-09-12?

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SettledEvent date Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 UTCLast checked 12 Sept 2026, 18:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-12T18:55:29.045Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

15.5%bid 15.0% / ask 16.0%24h volume $727K · liquidity $616Kas of 12 Sept, 18:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

20.0%against a market price of 12.5% at the timeNO

Logged 7 Sept 2026, 01:38 UTC · Brier 0.0400

Sunderland host Arsenal at the Stadium of Light, giving them home advantage, which is the single biggest factor lifting their win probability above a neutral-site estimate.
Sunderland are a solid mid-table side, not a relegation candidate: they finished 7th in 2025-26 and sit 12th with 4 points from 3 matches this season (1W-1D-1L), including a credible 1-1 draw away at Brentford.
Sunderland strengthened their squad late in the window with Kevin Danso and Malick Fofana, marginally improving their chances relative to a typical promoted side.
However, the opponent is Arsenal, the reigning 2025-26 Premier League champions, and fixture-difficulty assessments rate this as a hard match for Sunderland; champions-caliber away sides typically win well over half of such fixtures.
No team news, injuries, or suspensions are confirmed for either side, so I cannot adjust for lineup edge in either direction and default toward the market-typical home-underdog rate against an elite opponent.

What would change it: Confirmed Arsenal rotation, key injuries, or a major drop in Arsenal's early-season form (or significant Sunderland injuries) emerging before kickoff would shift my estimate by several points in either direction.

Settlement source

+7.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Premier League home teams win roughly 44-46% of matches on average, but home underdogs hosting the reigning champions win far less often, typically in the 12-20% range depending on team quality.

Chosen by hand.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

NOsettled 15 Sept 2026, 01:35 UTC · recorded 15 Sept 2026, 01:35 UTC · entered by handsettlement

What this call was reading

Sunderland AFC are scheduled to host Arsenal in the Premier League on September 12, 2026 at the Stadium of Light. as of 2026-09-07 · fotmob.com · within 90 days of this call
Sunderland currently sit 12th in the Premier League with 4 points from 3 matches (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss). as of 2026-09-07 · fotmob.com · within 90 days of this call
Sunderland's most recent Premier League match was a 1-1 draw away at Brentford, with Enzo Le Fée scoring a late equalizing penalty. as of 2026-09-05 · fotmob.com · within 90 days of this call
Sunderland's Premier League results this season are a 1-2 loss to Ipswich Town, a 1-0 win against Fulham, and a 1-1 draw with Brentford. as of 2026-09-07 · fotmob.com · within 90 days of this call
Sunderland finished the 2025-26 Premier League season in 7th place, their first season back in the top flight since 2016-17, qualifying for the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League. as of 2026-06-27 · en.wikipedia.org · within 90 days of this call
Sunderland signed defender Kevin Danso from Tottenham on deadline day and winger Malick Fofana from Lyon in a deal worth up to £30.8m before the September 2026 international break. as of 2026-09-05 · fotmob.com · within 90 days of this call
Arsenal were crowned 2025-26 Premier League champions on May 19, 2026, their first league title since the 2003-04 season, after Manchester City drew 1-1 with Bournemouth. as of 2026-05-19 · en.wikipedia.org
Sunderland's upcoming fixture schedule includes Arsenal (home) on September 12, followed by Manchester City (away) on September 20, both rated as difficult fixtures. as of 2026-09-07 · fotmob.com · within 90 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 15.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $726,634 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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