Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 70.0%against a market price of 10.9% at the timeNO
Logged 20 Aug 2026, 22:33 UTC · Brier 0.4900
- Reference class evidence is strong: nearly all MCU and Spider-Man films have 4th weekends well below $35M (Far From Home ~$10M, Endgame ~$30M, NWH ~$32.5M), and a late-August 4th weekend lands as summer moviegoing winds down, hurting holds.
- Signal vs narrative: actual 4th-weekend grosses of comparable films are hard signal; the narrative that a new Spider-Man will be an Avatar-level leggy phenomenon is speculative, since the film is unreleased and quality/word-of-mouth are unknown — but I concede meaningful upside risk given post-NWH franchise heat, capping my estimate near 70% rather than higher.
- Divergence from the market (10.9% implied) is large and, on base rates, appears mispriced toward the over-round; plausible causes are very low liquidity ($4.3k volume), fan-biased pricing expecting blockbuster legs, or the market implicitly pricing an extraordinary-hold scenario I assign only ~30%.
- Time-decay: with the 4th weekend occurring Aug 21-23 and the close on Aug 23, the outcome is resolved by actual weekend grosses; nothing before then materially changes the structural odds absent surprise performance data.
What would change it: If the film's opening and second/third weekend grosses track Avatar- or Black Panther-style holds (e.g., 3rd weekend above ~$55M), the probability of exceeding $35M in weekend four would rise sharply and my estimate would be wrong.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 2%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $11,708 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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