Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 38m and 41m?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 42.0%against a market price of 46.5% at the timeNO
Logged 20 Aug 2026, 22:31 UTC · Brier 0.1764
- Reference class is unfavorable: historically, 4th weekends of $38M+ require Top Gun: Maverick-level legs, which are rare even for mega-openers; the band also spans only $3M, so even a film tracking near $39.5M carries substantial landing error.
- Key inside-view signal is that the market closes the day the 4th weekend ends, and participants now know three full weekends of actual grosses — the 46.5% price implies realized trajectory (opening size plus holdover rates) is pointing near the center of the band, which is genuine signal rather than narrative.
- Divergence between my unconditional estimate (~12–15%) and the market (46.5%) has a plausible cause: the market has access to realized box office data I cannot observe; I update most of the way toward it but retain a discount because a $3M band at the tail of historical comparables is inherently noisy.
- Signal vs narrative: actual holdover percentages and weekday dailies are signal; 'Spider-Man always overperforms' or event-film hype is narrative and should be discounted.
What would change it: If the film's 3rd weekend came in well below ~$52M or its week-to-week drops exceed ~40%, the 4th weekend will almost certainly miss the $38M floor and this resolves NO.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 98%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $14,701 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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