Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-03T18:40:28.772Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
64.5%bid 64.0% / ask 65.0%24h volume $94K · liquidity $223Kas of 3 Oct, 18:40 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 44.0%against a market price of 53.0% at the timeYES
Logged 30 Sept 2026, 00:58 UTC · Brier 0.3136
- Base rate: away wins in 90 minutes for comparable European national teams run around 30%, and the draw resolving No caps the YES ceiling.
- Scotland is the stronger footballing nation on paper and leads the recorded head-to-head 2-1-1, a small positive nudge above the away base rate.
- Scotland's form is poor (0W-1D-1L, 0-3 loss to Switzerland most recently), but North Macedonia is worse (0W-0D-2L, 0-2 loss to Slovenia), so recent form is roughly neutral rather than a reason to downgrade Scotland.
- Scotland's squad is materially weakened: McTominay recovering from a heart procedure, Adams injured, and Tierney and McLean withdrawn — this erodes much of Scotland's talent edge and pulls the estimate back toward the base rate.
- The match is in Skopje, so the home-advantage penalty already embedded in the base rate applies; no postponement risk is indicated with the game 4 days away.
What would change it: Release of confirmed lineups or sportsbook odds showing North Macedonia as a clear favorite (e.g., Scotland's implied win probability below ~28%) would push my estimate down; Scotland being installed as a road favorite would push it up.
Settlement sourcet-0217
Polymarket prices this at 64.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $94,290 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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