Will Scotland win on 2026-10-03?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Sat, 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTCLast checked 30 Sept 2026, 22:30 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-09-30T22:30:28.724Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

54.5%bid 54.0% / ask 55.0%24h volume $3K · liquidity $33Kas of 30 Sept, 22:30 UTCView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

44.0%against a market price of 53.0% at the timeOpen
Logged 30 Sept 2026, 00:58 UTC
- Base rate: away wins in 90 minutes for comparable European national teams run around 30%, and the draw resolving No caps the YES ceiling.
- Scotland is the stronger footballing nation on paper and leads the recorded head-to-head 2-1-1, a small positive nudge above the away base rate.
- Scotland's form is poor (0W-1D-1L, 0-3 loss to Switzerland most recently), but North Macedonia is worse (0W-0D-2L, 0-2 loss to Slovenia), so recent form is roughly neutral rather than a reason to downgrade Scotland.
- Scotland's squad is materially weakened: McTominay recovering from a heart procedure, Adams injured, and Tierney and McLean withdrawn — this erodes much of Scotland's talent edge and pulls the estimate back toward the base rate.
- The match is in Skopje, so the home-advantage penalty already embedded in the base rate applies; no postponement risk is indicated with the game 4 days away.
What would change it: Release of confirmed lineups or sportsbook odds showing North Macedonia as a clear favorite (e.g., Scotland's implied win probability below ~28%) would push my estimate down; Scotland being installed as a road favorite would push it up.
t-0217

Context

Polymarket prices this at 54.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $2,572 on the busier venue. It closes in 3 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

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