Hornets vs. Clippers
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-11-15T04:00:28.400Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.
49.5%bid 49.0% / ask 50.0%24h volume $6K · liquidity $33Kas of 15 Nov, 04:00 UTCView on PolymarketPrice, last 60 days
Crossbook forecast
- 46.3%against a market price of 41.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 13 Nov 2026, 18:02 UTC
- The Clippers carry the home-side base rate of 55.3%, which is the only verified structural edge in this matchup; absent a confirmed spread, the home-court prior does the work.
- Record quality slightly favors Charlotte (4-8 vs. the Clippers' 2-8, with Charlotte's latest loss a five-point margin against the Clippers' 23-point margin), which pushes the estimate down from the home prior rather than up.
- Injuries hit the Clippers harder on the wing and in the backcourt (Beal out until Nov 29, Ingram out until Nov 19, J. Miller out until March) while Charlotte's most significant absence is Knueppel with Miller a game-time decision, so the net injury signal trims the Clippers' edge further.
- The market resolution covers only Hornets or Clippers with no draw; with two days to tip and no confirmed starting lineups or spread, I leave the estimate close to a coin flip rather than chase a narrow edge.
What would change it: A published sportsbook consensus spread of Clippers -3 or more (or Hornets -1 or more) would move this estimate materially toward the favored side.
t-0309
Polymarket prices this at 49.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $5,554 on the busier venue. It closes in 1 day. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.
Related markets
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