Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 16.0%against a market price of 12.5% at the timeNO
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 13:21 UTC · Brier 0.0256
- Outside view: generic La Liga split is about home 45% / draw 27% / away 28%; Real Sociedad’s quality lifts them above average against most opponents but not usually above ~50–60% unless home to weaker sides.
- Inside view: the available signal points to a difficult fixture profile—only a true away-at-Real Madrid/Barcelona/Atlético-type setup or major squad absences would justify a low-teens win probability; the 90-minute rule further caps YES because a draw is a loss.
- Market check: my independent estimate is mid-to-high teens, only modestly above the 12.5% quote; with just $257 24h volume, the small divergence is plausibly thin liquidity rather than reliable information.
What would change it: Confirmation that the match is home versus a bottom-half side, or news of multiple opponent starters out, would push the estimate materially upward; confirmed away at a full-strength elite opponent would validate the low-teens estimate.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 7%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $744,145 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
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