The record · t-0046
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-08-26?
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 13:21 UTC · polymarket · Contract settles 26 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC
Thesis
- Outside view: generic La Liga split is about home 45% / draw 27% / away 28%; Real Sociedad’s quality lifts them above average against most opponents but not usually above ~50–60% unless home to weaker sides.
- Inside view: the available signal points to a difficult fixture profile—only a true away-at-Real Madrid/Barcelona/Atlético-type setup or major squad absences would justify a low-teens win probability; the 90-minute rule further caps YES because a draw is a loss.
- Market check: my independent estimate is mid-to-high teens, only modestly above the 12.5% quote; with just $257 24h volume, the small divergence is plausibly thin liquidity rather than reliable information.
Base rate
A strong-but-not-elite La Liga club wins roughly 40–50% of league matches over a season, but single-match 90-minute win probability is much lower when away to elite opposition because draws also resolve No.
What would prove this wrong
Confirmation that the match is home versus a bottom-half side, or news of multiple opponent starters out, would push the estimate materially upward; confirmed away at a full-strength elite opponent would validate the low-teens estimate.
Settlement
Resolved NO on 26 Aug 2026 · settlement source
This call is line t-0046 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.