Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-11?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCLast checked 11 Oct 2026, 16:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-11T16:25:29.525Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

65.5%bid 65.0% / ask 66.0%24h volume $49K · liquidity $481Kas of 11 Oct, 16:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

57.3%against a market price of 61.5% at the timeYES
Logged 5 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC · Brier 0.1828
- Betis plays at home (Estadio La Cartuja), placing this squarely in the LaLiga home-win reference class at ~49%.
- Form strongly favors Betis: 5-1-1 (16 points) after seven matches versus Osasuna's 2-2-3 (8 points), an upward adjustment on the base rate.
- Betis carries a heavy injury/doubtful list — Firpo, Ceballos, Lo Celso, Bartra, Llorente — including key creators Ceballos and Lo Celso, a meaningful downward adjustment.
- Osasuna also has availability concerns (Barea out long-term; Muñoz, García, Oroz, Herrando doubtful), which partially offsets Betis's absences.
- Both teams' most recent results were draws, and neither side enters on a decisive momentum swing beyond what the season records already capture.
- Net: form edge outweighs the injury drag, but with Ceballos/Lo Celso doubtful I land only modestly above the home base rate rather than at a typical strong-favorite level (~60%+).
What would change it: Confirmation that Ceballos, Lo Celso, and additional Betis starters are ruled out (or an unexpectedly strong Osasuna lineup announcement) on match day would push this toward or below 50%.
Settlement sourcet-0221

Polymarket prices this at 65.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $49,006 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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