Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-10-11?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Sun, 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTCLast checked 11 Oct 2026, 16:25 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-11T16:25:29.525Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

65.5%bid 65.0% / ask 66.0%24h volume $49K · liquidity $481Kas of 11 Oct, 16:25 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

57.3%against a market price of 61.5% at the timeYES

Logged 5 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC · Brier 0.1828

Betis plays at home (Estadio La Cartuja), placing this squarely in the LaLiga home-win reference class at ~49%.
Form strongly favors Betis: 5-1-1 (16 points) after seven matches versus Osasuna's 2-2-3 (8 points), an upward adjustment on the base rate.
Betis carries a heavy injury/doubtful list — Firpo, Ceballos, Lo Celso, Bartra, Llorente — including key creators Ceballos and Lo Celso, a meaningful downward adjustment.
Osasuna also has availability concerns (Barea out long-term; Muñoz, García, Oroz, Herrando doubtful), which partially offsets Betis's absences.
Both teams' most recent results were draws, and neither side enters on a decisive momentum swing beyond what the season records already capture.
Net: form edge outweighs the injury drag, but with Ceballos/Lo Celso doubtful I land only modestly above the home base rate rather than at a typical strong-favorite level (~60%+).

What would change it: Confirmation that Ceballos, Lo Celso, and additional Betis starters are ruled out (or an unexpectedly strong Osasuna lineup announcement) on match day would push this toward or below 50%.

Settlement source

-4.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: LaLiga home teams won 49.1% of 379 matches in the 2025–26 season, which is the applicable home-win base rate for this fixture.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 53.0%, without sight of the price; published at 57.3%, the market’s 61.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 11 Oct 2026, 18:50 UTC · recorded 12 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

Real Betis is scheduled to host CA Osasuna at Estadio La Cartuja on October 11, 2026, in LaLiga matchday 8. as of 2026-10-05 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
LaLiga home teams won 186 of 379 reported matches in the 2025–26 season, a home-win rate of 49.1%. as of 2026-08-20 · xtra-stats.com
Real Betis’s 2026–27 league record was 5 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss after seven matches. as of 2026-10-05 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
CA Osasuna’s 2026–27 league record was 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses after seven matches. as of 2026-10-05 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Júnior Firpo with a muscle injury and an estimated return in mid-October 2026. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Dani Ceballos with a muscle injury and a doubtful status. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Giovani Lo Celso with physical discomfort and a doubtful status. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Marc Bartra with a hamstring injury and an estimated return in mid-October 2026. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Diego Llorente with a muscle injury and an estimated return in early October 2026. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Ismael Barea with a cruciate ligament injury and an estimated return in early December 2026. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Iker Muñoz with a knock and a doubtful status. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Raúl García with an illness and a doubtful status. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Aimar Oroz with a hamstring injury and a doubtful status. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Jorge Herrando with a muscle injury and a doubtful status. as of 2026-10-05 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
Real Betis’s most recent completed match was a 1–1 draw with Deportivo de La Coruña on September 20, 2026, a zero-goal margin. as of 2026-09-20 · laliga.com
CA Osasuna’s most recent completed match was a 1–1 draw with Rayo Vallecano on September 19, 2026, a zero-goal margin. as of 2026-09-19 · osasuna.es

Polymarket prices this at 65.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is active, at about $49,006 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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This call is line t-0221 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.