Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14?

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Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTCLast checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-14T16:40:26.996Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

67.5%bid 67.0% / ask 68.0%24h volume $368K · liquidity $1.5Mas of 14 Oct, 16:40 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

68.3%against a market price of 75.5% at the timeYES
Logged 12 Oct 2026, 15:03 UTC · Brier 0.1008
- The base rate is strongly favourable but is a 22-match sample that blends home and away games and predates the current injury crisis and poor run, so I treat it as a soft ceiling rather than a point estimate.
- Clear quality gap favours Liverpool: a top-five Premier League side visiting an Austrian Bundesliga club that reached the league phase only via the playoffs, supporting a win probability well above a generic away side.
- Heavy attacking absences are the main drag: Ekitike (Achilles, far from return), Isak (thigh), Gakpo (ankle), Bradley (knee) are out and Szoboszlai has a hamstring problem — potentially gutting the forward line and creative midfield three days before kickoff.
- Liverpool's domestic form is mediocre (2W-3D-1L) and it lost 0–3 to Manchester City on October 11, only three days before an away European fixture — a short turnaround off a demoralising defeat.
- Mitigants: LASK is also coming off a home loss (0–2 to Rapid Wien) with middling domestic form (5W-1D-2L), is missing Harakaté, and Liverpool has no suspensions, so the visitors' depleted squad still likely outclasses the hosts.
- Because resolution is win-in-90 (draw resolves No), even a strong favourite is capped by football's typical ~quarter draw rate; combined with away venue, injuries and short rest, I pull the 0.86 base down to the low 0.60s.
What would change it: Confirmed starting XIs on matchday — if Szoboszlai and at least one of Isak/Gakpo start, or if Liverpool names a near-full-strength attack, the estimate rises toward 0.70; if the entire first-choice front line is ruled out, it falls toward 0.50.
Settlement sourcet-0241

Polymarket prices this at 67.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $367,885 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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