Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-14?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledEvent date Wed, 14 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTCLast checked 14 Oct 2026, 16:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-14T16:40:26.996Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

67.5%bid 67.0% / ask 68.0%24h volume $368K · liquidity $1.5Mas of 14 Oct, 16:40 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

68.3%against a market price of 75.5% at the timeYES

Logged 12 Oct 2026, 15:03 UTC · Brier 0.1008

The base rate is strongly favourable but is a 22-match sample that blends home and away games and predates the current injury crisis and poor run, so I treat it as a soft ceiling rather than a point estimate.
Clear quality gap favours Liverpool: a top-five Premier League side visiting an Austrian Bundesliga club that reached the league phase only via the playoffs, supporting a win probability well above a generic away side.
Heavy attacking absences are the main drag: Ekitike (Achilles, far from return), Isak (thigh), Gakpo (ankle), Bradley (knee) are out and Szoboszlai has a hamstring problem — potentially gutting the forward line and creative midfield three days before kickoff.
Liverpool's domestic form is mediocre (2W-3D-1L) and it lost 0–3 to Manchester City on October 11, only three days before an away European fixture — a short turnaround off a demoralising defeat.
Mitigants: LASK is also coming off a home loss (0–2 to Rapid Wien) with middling domestic form (5W-1D-2L), is missing Harakaté, and Liverpool has no suspensions, so the visitors' depleted squad still likely outclasses the hosts.
Because resolution is win-in-90 (draw resolves No), even a strong favourite is capped by football's typical ~quarter draw rate; combined with away venue, injuries and short rest, I pull the 0.86 base down to the low 0.60s.

What would change it: Confirmed starting XIs on matchday — if Szoboszlai and at least one of Isak/Gakpo start, or if Liverpool names a near-full-strength attack, the estimate rises toward 0.70; if the entire first-choice front line is ruled out, it falls toward 0.50.

Settlement source

-7.3 probability points from the market at generation · low confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: Liverpool won 19 of its 22 most recent Champions League group-stage/league-phase matches (≈86%), though this small sample mixes home and away fixtures and likely reflects healthier squads.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 61.0%, without sight of the price; published at 68.3%, the market’s 75.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. A cited fact (f9, f10, f11, f12, f14) is one the market had not moved toward since it was published. That check is recorded, not enforced.

Settlement

Every answer this call has been given, oldest first. Nothing is edited: a correction is a new entry beside the one it replaces.

YESsettled 14 Oct 2026, 18:54 UTC · recorded 15 Oct 2026, 06:30 UTC · read from the venuesettlement

What this call was reading

Liverpool won 19 of its 22 most recent Champions League group-stage or league-phase matches before this fixture. [web:23] as of 2026-10-07 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool's senior men's team plays in the English Premier League, England's top division, and qualified for the 2026–27 Champions League after finishing fifth in England. [web:21][web:24] as of 2026-10-12 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
LASK plays in the Austrian Bundesliga, Austria's top division, and qualified for the 2026–27 Champions League through the playoffs. [web:16][web:24] as of 2026-10-12 · uefa.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool's club injury update listed Conor Bradley with a knee injury and described him as not close to team training. [web:58] as of 2026-10-09 · liverpoolfc.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool's club injury update said Hugo Ekitike was recovering from an Achilles tendon rupture and remained far from a return. [web:58] as of 2026-10-09 · liverpoolfc.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool's club injury update said Cody Gakpo had an ankle injury and was not ready to play on October 11. [web:58] as of 2026-10-09 · liverpoolfc.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool's club injury update said Alexander Isak had a thigh injury and was not ready to play on October 11. [web:58] as of 2026-10-09 · liverpoolfc.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool manager Andoni Iraola said Dominik Szoboszlai had a hamstring problem on October 11. [web:106] as of 2026-10-11 · nytimes.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool's 2026–27 Premier League record through October 11 was two wins, three draws, and one loss. [web:29] as of 2026-10-11 · en.wikipedia.org · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool lost 0–3 to Manchester City in its most recent match, on October 11. [web:32] as of 2026-10-11 · espn.co.uk · within 14 days of this call
LASK was scheduled to host Liverpool at Oberösterreich Arena on October 14, 2026, at 18:45 local time in the Champions League league phase. [web:37] as of 2026-10-12 · lask.at · within 14 days of this call
LASK's 2026–27 Austrian Bundesliga record through October 11 was five wins, one draw, and two losses. [web:37] as of 2026-10-11 · lask.at · within 14 days of this call
LASK lost 0–2 to SK Rapid Wien in its most recent match, on October 11. [web:37] as of 2026-10-11 · lask.at · within 14 days of this call
LASK's unavailable-player listing named Ramiz Harakaté with a knee injury. [web:111] as of 2026-10-12 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
Liverpool's club update reported no players suspended. [web:58] as of 2026-10-09 · liverpoolfc.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 67.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $367,885 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

Related markets

Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.

This call is line t-0241 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.