Will Iran target a Arab country on August 26, 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

SettledContract settles 27 Aug 2026Last checked 27 Aug 2026, 03:55 UTC

PM3.0%bid 1.0% / ask 5.0%24h volume $2K · liquidity $15Kas of 27 Aug, 03:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

4.1%against a market price of 7.5% at the timeNO
Logged 23 Aug 2026, 14:34 UTC · Brier 0.0017
- The qualifying set is broad and includes Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon, where Iran has plausible targets and prior missile activity, so the rate is above a naive ‘Iran attacks an Arab state’ baseline; however proxies, drones unless counted as air strikes, and non-Arab Israel do not qualify.
- Time-decay is material: with only four days to a single AST calendar date, the absence in the prompt of confirmed mobilization, NOTAMs, evacuations or explicit timed threats keeps the estimate near a crisis-adjusted prior rather than a war-footing probability.
- My independent estimate is below the 7.5% market price; the divergence is plausibly a named-date/rumor premium or information I do not have, but the narrow resolution window argues against paying too much for vague tension.
What would change it: Credible evidence before Aug 25 AST of timed Iranian strike preparations—IRGC missile dispersal, airspace closures, embassy/base evacuations, or an explicit threat for Aug 26—would sharply raise the estimate, while quiet through Aug 25 would push it toward the low base rate.
Settlement source

Context

Polymarket prices this at 3%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $2,072 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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