Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingContract settles 1 Jan 2027Last checked 8 Sept 2026, 16:10 UTC

PM72.5%bid 72.0% / ask 73.0%24h volume $16K · liquidity $38Kas of 8 Sept, 16:10 UTCView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

57.0%against a market price of 48.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 29 Aug 2026, 14:37 UTC
- Signal: the settlement bar is low—one deliberate official meeting aimed at ceasefire/peace/substantive de-escalation suffices, no agreement required, and indirect formats may qualify—so back-channel or lower-level diplomacy can resolve YES even amid fighting.
- Signal vs narrative: war exhaustion, winter energy/economic pressure, manpower constraints, and 2026 US/European electoral incentives support at least exploratory contacts; the narrative of imminent peace is not required and should not be overweighted against entrenched maximalist demands and domestic veto risks.
- My 57% is above the 48.5% market mainly because $2,608 24h volume is thin and traders may be pricing absence of headline peace summits while underpricing the broad qualifying-meeting definition and end-of-year diplomatic deadline pressure.
What would change it: Credible evidence by late autumn that both governments have formally ruled out any qualifying official contacts and suspended humanitarian/back-channel channels would push this sharply lower.

Context

Polymarket prices this at 73%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $16,025 on the busier venue.

Related markets

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