Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Both venues are priced below, side by side.
Informational only. Not trading or investment advice. Prices may be delayed or inaccurate, and a difference between venues can be an artifact — how this is measured.
How each venue defines this
Each exchange's own settlement text, quoted as written. Where they differ, the difference is usually why the prices do.
These two contracts settle about 3 months apart. The venue with the longer window has more time to come good, which moves its price for a reason that is not disagreement.
Settles Nov 7, 28
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Settles Jan 21, 29
If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement basis
A person confirmed these two markets ask the same question. Their settlement documents have not been compared, so treat the price difference as unverified rather than as a like for like gap.
Confirmed as the same question: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 US presidential election
Crossbook forecast
No public Crossbook forecast on this market yet. Every call that is made is timestamped and scored on the public record, win or lose.
Context
Polymarket prices this at 13% while Kalshi has it at 9%, a gap of 4.0 points on the same question. Whether that gap is real depends entirely on whether the two settle on the same terms.
Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $1,247 on the busier venue.
Related markets
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?
Crossbook publishes every forecast it makes, timestamped before the answer is known and scored against the market afterwards. See the public record and the rules it is held to.