Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO?

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SettledEvent date Tue, 13 Oct 2026, 23:00 UTCContract settles 14 Oct 2026Last checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:55 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-13T22:55:29.263Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

21.5%bid 16.0% / ask 27.0%24h volume $10K · liquidity $6Kas of 13 Oct, 22:55 UTC · not refreshed recentlyView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

19.5%against a market price of 16.0% at the timeNO
Logged 9 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Brier 0.0380
- Base rate: 44.9% of DWCS bouts end by KO/TKO; conditional on roughly even matchups, a single fighter's KO/TKO win rate is about half that (~22%).
- Visconde (17-3, former LFA featherweight champion) is modestly more credentialed than Bulaid (9-0), nudging his share of stoppage wins slightly above the coin-flip split, but Bulaid is himself a finisher (round-1 TKO in his last fight), so both sides of the stoppage distribution are live.
- Bulaid withdrew from the original September 29 bout on doctor's orders after falling ill; if he fights compromised, Visconde's stoppage chance rises, but his clearance status as of October 9 is unknown, so this is signal with wide error bars rather than a firm upgrade.
- The prior postponement plus Bulaid's illness creates a non-trivial chance (~10%) the bout is canceled or postponed past October 13, which resolves 50-50 rather than YES — this trims the strict probability of a YES resolution below the conditional estimate.
- Net: ~0.9 occurrence probability times ~0.25 conditional KO/TKO win chance lands near 0.22-0.24; I hold close to base rate because neither fighter's finishing tendency nor Bulaid's health can be verified from the retrieved facts.
What would change it: Confirmation before weigh-ins that Bulaid either failed to receive medical clearance (pushing toward 50-50/cancellation) or is fully recovered and a strong favorite (pushing Visconde's KO path down toward ~0.15).
Settlement sourcet-0233

Polymarket prices this at 21.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is modest, at about $9,608 on the busier venue.

This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.

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