Will Erick Visconde win by KO or TKO?

Logged 9 Oct 2026, 17:02 UTC · Brier 0.0380

• Base rate: 44.9% of DWCS bouts end by KO/TKO; conditional on roughly even matchups, a single fighter's KO/TKO win rate is about half that (~22%).
• Visconde (17-3, former LFA featherweight champion) is modestly more credentialed than Bulaid (9-0), nudging his share of stoppage wins slightly above the coin-flip split, but Bulaid is himself a finisher (round-1 TKO in his last fight), so both sides of the stoppage distribution are live.
• Bulaid withdrew from the original September 29 bout on doctor's orders after falling ill; if he fights compromised, Visconde's stoppage chance rises, but his clearance status as of October 9 is unknown, so this is signal with wide error bars rather than a firm upgrade.
• The prior postponement plus Bulaid's illness creates a non-trivial chance (~10%) the bout is canceled or postponed past October 13, which resolves 50-50 rather than YES — this trims the strict probability of a YES resolution below the conditional estimate.
• Net: ~0.9 occurrence probability times ~0.25 conditional KO/TKO win chance lands near 0.22-0.24; I hold close to base rate because neither fighter's finishing tendency nor Bulaid's health can be verified from the retrieved facts.

What would change it: Confirmation before weigh-ins that Bulaid either failed to receive medical clearance (pushing toward 50-50/cancellation) or is fully recovered and a strong favorite (pushing Visconde's KO path down toward ~0.15).

+3.5 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In the 2022 DWCS season 22 of 49 bouts (44.9%) ended by KO/TKO; for a named fighter to win that way, halve that for rough parity, giving ~0.22 as the per-fighter stoppage-win rate.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 23.0%, without sight of the price; published at 19.5%, the market’s 16.0% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.