Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTCLast checked 29 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

41.5%bid 41.0% / ask 42.0%24h volume $37 · liquidity $21Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on Polymarket

Price, last 60 days

Crossbook forecast

47.8%against a market price of 40.5% at the timeOpen
Logged 26 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC
- Elche are the home side at Estadio Martínez Valero on November 1, so the relevant base rate is the LaLiga home win rate of 48.9% rather than a generic 50% coin flip.
- Recent form is a genuine signal: Elche just won 3–0 away at Rayo Vallecano, while Valencia lost 2–1 at home to Villarreal, suggesting short-term momentum favors Elche.
- League-table signal is mixed and weak: Elche are 2-4-4 and Valencia are 1-3-6 after 10 matches, so both sit in the lower half; the difference is small enough that it should not overwhelm the home-field base rate.
- Valencia carry a much heavier unavailable/suspended list (Elliott, Otorbi, Foulquier, Sadiq, D. López, Canós, Copete) than Elche (Aguado, Niño), which should depress Valencia’s chance and lift Elche’s win probability [a cited source].
- The market closes six days out, so confirmed starting XIs are not yet known; that uncertainty argues against pushing the estimate far above the mid-50s without lineups or late team news.
What would change it: If late injury/team news or confirmed lineups show Elche missing additional key starters or Valencia’s absentees returning, the probability would move back toward the 48.9% home base rate.
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Polymarket prices this at 41.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $37 on the busier venue. It closes in 3 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

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