Will Elche CF win on 2026-11-01?

Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.

Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.

TradingEvent date Sun, 1 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTCLast checked 29 Oct 2026, 20:40 UTC

Bid/ask midpoint · retrieved 2026-10-29T20:40:28.683Z. Venue quote-update time is unavailable. Readings can be asynchronous.

41.5%bid 41.0% / ask 42.0%24h volume $37 · liquidity $21Kas of 29 Oct, 20:40 UTCView on Polymarket

Crossbook forecast

47.8%against a market price of 40.5% at the timeOpen

Logged 26 Oct 2026, 23:01 UTC

Elche are the home side at Estadio Martínez Valero on November 1, so the relevant base rate is the LaLiga home win rate of 48.9% rather than a generic 50% coin flip.
Recent form is a genuine signal: Elche just won 3–0 away at Rayo Vallecano, while Valencia lost 2–1 at home to Villarreal, suggesting short-term momentum favors Elche.
League-table signal is mixed and weak: Elche are 2-4-4 and Valencia are 1-3-6 after 10 matches, so both sit in the lower half; the difference is small enough that it should not overwhelm the home-field base rate.
Valencia carry a much heavier unavailable/suspended list (Elliott, Otorbi, Foulquier, Sadiq, D. López, Canós, Copete) than Elche (Aguado, Niño), which should depress Valencia’s chance and lift Elche’s win probability [a cited source].
The market closes six days out, so confirmed starting XIs are not yet known; that uncertainty argues against pushing the estimate far above the mid-50s without lineups or late team news.

What would change it: If late injury/team news or confirmed lineups show Elche missing additional key starters or Valencia’s absentees returning, the probability would move back toward the 48.9% home base rate.

+7.2 probability points from the market at generation · med confidence · Polymarket

Base rate: In the 2025–26 LaLiga season, home teams won 186 of 380 matches, or 48.9%.

Chosen by Crossbook's published selection rule (auto-v1), not by hand.

Formed blind at 55.0%, without sight of the price; published at 47.8%, the market’s 40.5% moved 50% of the way toward it by fixed rule. None of the cited facts could be shown to be one the market had not already priced. That check is recorded, not enforced.

What this call was reading

Elche CF is scheduled to host Valencia CF at Estadio Martínez Valero on November 1, 2026, in LaLiga EA SPORTS. [web:8] as of 2026-10-25 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
In the 2025–26 LaLiga season, home teams won 186 of 380 matches, or 48.9%. [web:81] as of 2026-05-24 · myfootballfacts.com
Elche CF’s most recent league result was a 3–0 win away to Rayo Vallecano on October 24, a three-goal margin. [web:27] as of 2026-10-24 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
Valencia CF’s most recent league result was a 2–1 loss at home to Villarreal on October 24, a one-goal margin. [web:26] as of 2026-10-24 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
Elche CF’s 2026–27 league record is 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses after 10 matches, so its November 1 fixture is not its first game of the season. [web:51] as of 2026-10-26 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
Valencia CF’s 2026–27 league record is 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses after 10 matches, so its November 1 fixture is not its first game of the season. [web:51] as of 2026-10-26 · laliga.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Elche midfielder Marc Aguado as unavailable with an ankle sprain for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Elche forward Fer Niño as unavailable with a muscle injury for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Valencia player Harvey Elliott as suspended for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Valencia player David Otorbi as unavailable with a hamstring injury for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Valencia defender Dimitri Foulquier as unavailable with a knee injury for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Valencia forward Umar Sadiq as unavailable with a hamstring injury for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Valencia player Diego López as unavailable with a cruciate ligament injury for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Valencia player Sergi Canós as unavailable with a cruciate ligament injury for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call
FotMob listed Valencia defender José Copete as unavailable with a meniscus injury for the November 1 match. [web:37] as of 2026-10-26 · fotmob.com · within 14 days of this call

Polymarket prices this at 41.5%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.

Volume over the last 24 hours is thin, at about $37 on the busier venue. It closes in 3 days. Prices this close to resolution move on news rather than on reassessment.

Related markets

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This call is line t-0276 of the public append-only ledger, committed when it was published. It appears on the record alongside every other call, resolved and open.