Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-05?
Crossbook compares what two exchanges, Polymarket and Kalshi, charge for the same event, and publishes a permanent scored record of its own forecasts under published rules.
Tracked on one venue, with Crossbook's own call on the record.
Crossbook forecast
- 12.0%against a market price of 6.5% at the timeNO
Logged 1 Sept 2026, 02:42 UTC · Brier 0.0144
- Outside view: three-way soccer outcomes make any single-team win far from even money; draws alone remove about a quarter of outcomes, and Coventry’s recent Championship level would make them favorite only in some home fixtures.
- Inside view: the prompt lacks opponent, venue, injuries, and form, so case-specific signal is weak; the very low 6.5% market quote is treated cautiously because $314 volume is thin, but it still suggests the actual fixture may be a difficult away/elite matchup rather than a generic league game.
- Post-estimate price check: my independent range was higher than 6.5%, but the divergence is plausibly explained by an opponent/venue embedded in the event plus low liquidity, so I only partially update toward the market rather than fully accepting it.
What would change it: Confirmed lineup/fixture news showing Coventry at home against a comparable or weaker opponent, or major opponent absences, would move this sharply upward.
Settlement source
Context
Polymarket prices this at 7%. No verified equivalent is currently listed on the other venue, so there is no cross venue comparison on this page.
Volume over the last 24 hours is heavy, at about $460,535 on the busier venue.
This market has settled. The page is kept as a record of what the market said while the question was open, and of what Crossbook called.
Related markets
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